The Only Counter to Ignorance- 2/23/2026
This essay shows the roles to engage to combat this never-ending concern.
The Blank Canvas and the Copyist: Why Statistics is Losing Its Ability to Analyze - 2/16/2026
Pharmaceutical statistical organizations have become so focused on regulatory process that they've lost the ability to actually analyze data, and it's setting up failures no one sees coming.
Develop Baby Develop - 2/9/2026
Imagine Billie Bob Thornton portraying a biotech CEO—now imagine learning about drug development risk along the way.
Statistics Without Intuition - 2/2/2026
This essay argues that introductory statistics should prioritize numerical literacy and interpretation over mathematical and computational procedures.
Thinking Slowly About Baseline Data- 1/19/2026
When we have time to think, mathematics can clarify choices that instinct alone cannot resolve.
When Clever Math Meets Bad Biology: Why sophistication cannot rescue weak premises- 1/12/2026
The history of creatinine clearance shows that scientific progress comes less from refining formulas than from improving the biological quantities they are meant to estimate. A model is useful for conveniently estimating the underlying biology.
The Lucky Seventh Lever- 1/5/2026
Its luck was revealed in childhood; its power lies in knowing where unequal allocation helps, and where it cannot.
Before We Panic: Thinking Clearly About FDA’s One-Trial Proposal- 12/29/2025
This blog shows how to reason quantitatively about FDA’s proposed policy change instead of defaulting to either alarm or celebration.
Raising Tens into Hundreds- 12/22/2025
From crime fiction to sufficient statistics, why every layer of modeling necessarily blurs information rather than creating it.
Christmas Bonus Blog: 12 Games, Infinite Lessons- 12/16/2025
What a few college football games reveal about weighing evidence, applying models, and making informed decisions — lessons that extend far beyond the field.
The Thing Formerly Known as Statistics - 12/15/2025
Statistics did not disappear; one of its creations has become powerful, and with that power comes responsibility we are currently failing to take seriously.
Don’t Drive Your Mustang at the Speed Limit: Making Full Use of Clinical Trial Data - 12/8/2025
A guide to avoiding wasted potential in clinical trials by leveraging repeated measures and integrating pharmacology and biological insights into analysis.
Rituals, Traditions, and Six Key Design Levers - 12/1/2025
Thanksgiving stories lead to a broader lesson: knowing all possibilities allows one to apply six critical levers for smarter study design.
Credibility Is Not Implicit — It Must Be Earned: Practical Advice for Statisticians Aiming to Improve Drug Development - 11/24/2025
Being a technically great statistician is not enough: before your skills can shine, you must open the door that allows you to establish credibility with each scientist you work with and then establish it.
How to Make Rational Decisions When Your Budget Says No - 11/17/2025
This blog offers a framework for making responsible Proof-of-Concept decisions when budgets limit sample size, showing how adaptive thinking replaces rigid historical dogma.
Conditioned to Comply: What Dogs Teach Us About Science - 11/10/2025
A dog may follow commands without understanding why, but in science, blindly following ‘statistical’ rules without grasping the principles can lead to cherry picking, misinterpretation, and compromised integrity.
Why Provisional Knowledge Deserves Careful Communication - 11/3/2025
When diagnostic observations are presented as facts, the consequences ripple through public perception, funding, and the progress of science itself.
Dubbed Bayesian?: Why Adoption Is Slow in Drug Development - 10/27/2025
In last week's blog, I showed that the Frequentist/Bayesian divide is largely philosophical, with practical differences between approaches being limited. Even unique Bayesian methods can often be interpreted in a frequentist manner. Yet, adoption of these methods, dubbed Bayesian, even when appropriately applied, has been slow in drug development. This article explains why.
The Myth of the Tribes: Bridging Bayesian and Frequentist - 10/20/2025
Despite the tribal divide, Bayesian and Frequentist methods produce nearly the same action in the preponderance of situations.